Polar Vortex Split to Unleash Chilly Start to 2026
Washington, DC, January 16, 2026 – A major polar vortex disruption is expected to bring prolonged cold air and snowfall to the United States, Canada, and Europe in January 2026, according to meteorologists. The vortex, a large area of cold air circling the Arctic, is forecast to split, allowing frigid temperatures to spill southward, impacting millions with below-average conditions and potential winter storms.
Understanding the Polar Vortex
The polar vortex is a broad winter circulation of cold air over the northern hemisphere, typically containing frigid polar air in the stratosphere. When disrupted by stratospheric warming events, it can weaken or split, releasing cold air into mid-latitude regions like the United States and Europe. This year’s event, occurring unusually early in January, is described as exceptionally strong, with warming of 40 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit in the stratosphere over the Arctic in just days. Such disruptions are rare this early in the season, with fewer than a handful recorded in the past 70 years.
Cold Air Release Forecast
Following the polar vortex split, cold air is expected to flow into North America and Europe, bringing northerly winds and below-normal temperatures. In the United States, the eastern half could see temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below average, with the Midwest and Northeast at highest risk for deep freezes. Canada may experience widespread subzero conditions, especially in the Prairie provinces. Europe could face cold outbreaks, potentially reaching southern regions. Snowfall is likely in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and parts of Europe, with lake-effect snow possible in the United States. The impacts may last through late January and into February, with a 20-40 day delay from the initial stratospheric event.
Key Facts and Stats
| Region | Expected Temperature Anomaly | Potential Impacts |
|---|---|---|
| United States (Central and Eastern) | 20-30°F below average | Cold blasts, lake-effect snow, wind chills to -50°F |
| Canada (Prairies and East) | Subzero lows, widespread cold | Blowing snow, travel disruptions, extreme wind chills |
| Europe | Below-normal temperatures | Cold outbreaks, snowfall in northern and central areas |
| Timeline | Late January to early February | Prolonged cold with periodic storms |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the polar vortex?
The polar vortex is a large-scale circulation of strong westerly winds that encircle the Arctic in the stratosphere, about 10-50 miles above the surface. It helps contain the coldest air over the pole. When it weakens or splits, cold air can spill southward.
Will this disruption guarantee extreme cold everywhere?
No. It increases the odds of unusual patterns, especially in late January and February, but the exact placement of cold pools and storm tracks varies. Some regions may see severe cold, others may end up milder or more changeable.
How long will the cold last?
Impacts typically unfold over 1-3 weeks after the disruption peaks, potentially lasting through late January and into February, with a 20-40 day delay from the initial event.
Is climate change causing this?
Researchers debate the links. A warmer Arctic and shrinking sea ice may make the polar vortex more prone to disruptions, but background warming sets the stage without single-handedly causing each event.