Intel’s High-Stakes Earnings: Analysts Brace for 8.8% Swing as Foundry Future Hangs in Balance
SANTA CLARA, January 21, 2026 – Intel Corporation enters a critical juncture as it prepares to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after market close on Thursday, January 22. The semiconductor giant, once an undisputed leader, now faces a market pricing in a volatile 8.82% single-day price move, reflecting a binary verdict on CEO Pat Gelsinger’s multi-year turnaround strategy. A wave of recent analyst upgrades signals cautious optimism, but sky-high valuations and fierce competition from AMD and NVIDIA leave little room for error.
The Earnings Crucible: Low Bar, High Expectations
Intel is expected to report a narrow result for Q4 2025. The consensus analyst estimate calls for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 on revenue of approximately $13.37 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 38.5% and 6.2%, respectively. However, the true focus will be on forward guidance and tangible progress in its fledgling Intel Foundry business. Options market volatility suggests traders are bracing for a swing nearly double the stock’s average post-earnings move, with defensive put buying concentrated below the $45 level.
Analyst Sentiment: A Narrow But Notable Shift
Wall Street’s view of Intel is undergoing a targeted, if not broad, reassessment. In a significant pivot, KeyCorp upgraded the stock from “Sector Weight” to “Overweight” with a $60 price target, while Citi moved from “Sell” to “Hold” with a $50 target. These moves are fueled by optimism around Intel’s 18A manufacturing process and potential foundry customer wins, including rumored engagements with Apple. Despite these upgrades, the average analyst price target sits at a more modest $37.52 to $39.08, indicating lingering skepticism about the pace and profitability of the recovery.
Financial Projections & Competitive Landscape
| Metric | Intel (INTC) Outlook | Competitive Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Revenue Growth (Est.) | +2.84% (Projected) | AMD’s data center revenue projected to grow 50%+ |
| 2026 Net Income (Est.) | $199.9 Million (Projected) | NVIDIA’s net margin ~35%; Intel’s currently ~0.37% |
| Forward P/E Ratio | 115.59 | AMD: 62.18; NVIDIA: 43.96 |
| Key Catalyst | 18A Foundry Ramp & AI PC Shipments | AMD’s MI455 GPUs; NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure dominance |
| Market Cap | $242.26 Billion | NVIDIA: ~$4 Trillion; AMD: ~$377 Billion |
The Foundry Gambit and AI PC Race
Intel’s future is increasingly tied to two strategic bets: becoming a major contract chip manufacturer (foundry) and leading the nascent “AI PC” market. The company has confirmed its 18A process node is in high-volume manufacturing with yields above 60%, a critical milestone. Success here could position Intel as a viable alternative to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC). Concurrently, its new “Panther Lake” processors are central to its goal of shipping 100 million AI-enabled chips, competing directly with Apple’s silicon and Qualcomm’s ARM-based designs in the laptop market.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Intel report earnings?
Intel is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the market closes on Thursday, January 22, 2026.
What are analysts expecting for Intel’s Q4 earnings?
The consensus estimate is for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 on revenue of approximately $13.37 billion. The “whisper number” among some investors is slightly higher at $0.40.
Why is there so much volatility expected around the report?
The options market implies an 8.82% price move. This high volatility reflects the binary nature of the report: it will either validate the turnaround narrative centered on the foundry business and AI PCs or expose continued execution risks, potentially leading to a sharp sell-off.
Is Intel stock a buy before earnings?
The investment thesis is high-risk, high-reward. Recent analyst upgrades point to potential upside if execution improves, but the stock’s premium valuation (Forward P/E of 115.59) leaves little margin for error. Most analysts maintain a “Hold” rating, suggesting cautious optimism is warranted.